US-led attacks on Afghanistan,  leading to possible break-up of Pakistan

PART  I  -- Reluctant ISI and The Economic Angle of Gov. of Pakistan

PART II  --  Nexus between Pro-Taliban ISI and the Jihadis

Date Written  :  Aug 17, 2001
Last modified :  Oct  08, 2001

Before Sep 11 Islamic Terror Attacks

Before Sep 11 islamic terrorist attacks,  the US government is on records saying "Given the presence of international  terrorist Osama bin Laden in neighbouring Afghanistan and the public  sympathy and support for him in Pakistan, and the presence of  indigenous anti-US terrorist groups in Pakistan, the Department urges  all American citizens resident in, or travelling through, Pakistan to  take appropriate steps to maintain their security awareness. Events in  the Middle East have increased the possibility of violence."

Earlier, the US government had requested few times to the Government of Pakistan to provide active support.  This also included secret deployment of US special forces in northern Pakistan, for an operation inside Afghanistan to nab Osama bin Laden, dead or alive. In 1999 CIA had a detailed plan to capture Osama and other terrorists.  The ISI was reluctant to give support to the US government.  

In fact ISI had helped Taliban and Al-Qaida by procuring arms from the Western countries and supply them to Taliban fighters.  They even shifted arms to Taliban from the private firms and individuals from the NWFP and other areas of Pakistan.  The ISI till date have not  given  the details to US regarding the military power of Taliban.

Earlier attempt to knock out Osama bin Laden and his bases by firing  Tomahawk cruise missile in August 1998 had failed to cause any damage to Osama or any of his known associates. These attacks were on the caves and/or hardened bunkers in Afghanistan. The 20 August 1998 US missile attack had killed more than two dozen Pakistanis who were being trained at several terrorist training facilities inside Afghanistan. At the same time a factory in  Sudan was also bombed. Sudan was under UN sanctions at that time, because they were ( and still are )  supporting Islamic Terrorism.  But this time Sudan might not get bombed, because  recently UN has lifted sanctions against Sudan on the same day when the UN passed Anti-Terrorism resolution without defining Terrorism 

The Sep 11 changed the scenario. Yet again,  US asked  for the support for carrying out operations in Afghanistan.  This time,  after lot of thinking,  Pakistan agreed to most of the demands of US after a lot of opposition within the country. After the collapse of Taliban, Pakistan may also face internal disturbances within the the country.

The Economic Angle of Pakistan to allow US attack on Afghanistan using its bases.

As chances for a US-led military action inside Afghanistan look real without the help of Pakistan,  Pakistan started negotiating with the US government to lift sanctions against its country in exchange of help  against fighting  Afghanistan.   The Sep 11 changed the scenario and sanctions were removed.  The bill, if approved,  would provide critical support  to the worsening financial position of  Pakistan. 

The Military regime has already frozen all accounts of the Afghanistan government that were being run with the State Bank of Pakistan and other nationalised and private banks in the country. In past few days the government had also ordered freezing of accounts that were being run by Jihadi organisations in Pakistan to extend financial support to the Taliban government. Few of the terrorist organisations are now even banned from operating in Pakistan.  

This economic angle has not come suddenly, but was existing for long years before this. Former chief of Army Staff Gen Abdul Waheed had personally allowed army's involvement in the US-led operation in Islamabad to catch Ramzi Ahmed Yusuf in February 1996. Waheed's successor Gen Jehangir Karamat authorised the participation of a military security agency and other army personnel for another US-led operation that had resulted in the arrest of Mir Aimal Kansi in Dera Ghazi Khan in June 1997. A big amount of reward money of  US$3.5 million went to an individual fronting for this security service. Under the US law, any government agency or official cannot claim reward money reserved for information on the most wanted terrorists.

In December 1999, a few weeks after taking over as the chief executive, General Pervez Musharraf faced a similar situation when he received requests from top level US government officials to allow US troops launch a swift operation in Peshawar for the arrest of Khalil al-Deek  Deek is a dual American-Jordanian citizen of Palestinian origin and is closely associated with Osama bin Laden. He was wanted to the US authorities for his role in an abortive plot to blow up several high profile installations in the US on the millennium eve. Gen Musharraf after a brief consultation with some senior generals, directed the ISI and the corps commander Peshawar to launch a joint operation for Deek's arrest. The successful operation led to Deek's arrest and his swift extradition on a special US airforce plane from Pakistan.

Also the  ban on religious militant outfits like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LJ) and Sipah-e-Muhammad (SM) and closing of Offices of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen  on Sep 29,  shows that Pakistan is trying to win over US.  They may also give some clues about Osma bin Laden's whereabouts.  

But the Jihadis have opposed the joint US-Pak attacks on Afghanistan which will ultimately break Pakistan.........  

Read :  Part II  --  Nexus between Pro-Taliban ISI and the Jihadis

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